xSaudi Arabia is set to increase its official selling prices (OSPs) for crude oil exports to Asia in November 2025. The anticipated price hike ranges from 20 to 60 cents per barrel, depending on the grade of crude. This move follows significant price cuts in October and reflects the Kingdom's strategy to adjust to changing market conditions.
For its flagship Arab Light crude, Saudi Arabia plans to raise the OSP by 20 to 40 cents per barrel, setting it above the Oman/Dubai benchmark. Other grades, including Arab Extra Light, Medium, and Heavy, are expected to see increases of 30 to 60 cents per barrel. These adjustments align with a recent rise in the premium of cash Dubai to swaps, which reached a six-month high in mid-September, influenced by potential sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil.
Despite the planned price increases, several factors may temper the impact. An anticipated production boost by OPEC+ of at least 137,000 barrels per day in November could lead to a supply surplus, exerting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the resumption of crude oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region after a 2.5-year hiatus adds to the global supply, potentially influencing market dynamics.
Saudi Arabia's decision to adjust crude oil prices reflects its ongoing efforts to balance market share, revenue, and geopolitical considerations. The Kingdom's pricing strategy remains responsive to global supply-demand shifts, geopolitical developments, and the evolving landscape of energy markets.
